National League North Gameweek 28
Jan 24, 2026 3.00pm
Haig Avenue

Southport vs Merthyr Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Southport

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Jan 20, 2026 7.45pm
South Shields 1 - 0 Southport
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Malakai McKenzie

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Jan 17, 2026 3.00pm
Merthyr Town 0 - 0 P'boro Sports
Goals scored
56
Top scorer
Ricardo Rees

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Southport win with a probability of 49.29%. A win for Merthyr Town has a probability of 28.83% and a draw has a probability of 21.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southport win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (6.54%) and 2-0 (6.29%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win is 1-2 (6.99%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.71%).

Result

Southport 49.29% (+0.40)
Draw 21.93% (-0.06)
Merthyr Town 28.83% (-0.30)

Both Teams to Score: 

65.26% (-0.10)

Goals

Over 1.5 85.48% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 14.52% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 66.28% (-0.05)
Under 2.5 33.67%
Over 3.5 43.85% (-0.13)
Under 3.5 56.15% (+0.13)
Over 4.5 28.16% (-0.08)
Under 4.5 71.84% (+0.08)

First Half Winner

Southport 35.37% (-0.11)
Draw 39.13% (+0.09)
Merthyr Town 25.5% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Southport 56.22% (-0.01)
No Goal 3.55% (+0.03)
Merthyr Town 40.23% (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 63.99%
Equal 8 10.73%
Under 8 25.27% (-0.02)
Over 9 52.52%
Equal 9 11.47%
Under 9 36.01%
Over 10.5 41.29% (-0.01)
Under 10.5 58.71% (+0.01)

Southport Goals

Over 1.5 55.02% (+0.28)
Under 1.5 44.98% (-0.28)
Over 2.5 29.51% (+0.16)
Under 2.5 70.49% (-0.16)
Over 3.5 13.29% (+0.14)
Under 3.5 86.71% (-0.15)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 0.5 66.11% (-0.30)
Under 0.5 33.89% (+0.30)
Over 1.5 36.94% (-0.43)
Under 1.5 63.06% (+0.43)
Over 2.5 16.47% (-0.27)
Under 2.5 83.53% (+0.27)
Over 3.5 5.57% (-0.17)
Under 3.5 94.43% (+0.17)

Score analysis

Southport 49.29%
Draw 21.92%
Merthyr Town 28.83%
Southport
2-1 @ 9.26% (+0.10)
1-0 @ 6.54% (+0.03)
2-0 @ 6.29% (+0.08)
3-1 @ 5.73% (+0.04)
3-0 @ 4.53% (+0.08)
3-2 @ 3.92% (-0.06)
Other @ 13.02% (+0.17)
Total : 49.29%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.71% (+0.05)
2-2 @ 6.35% (-0.08)
0-0 @ 3.55% (+0.03)
3-3 @ 2.04% (-0.05)
Other @ 0.27% (-0.02)
Total : 21.92%
Merthyr Town
1-2 @ 6.99% (-0.05)
0-1 @ 4.47% (-0.05)
2-3 @ 3.61% (+0.03)
1-3 @ 3.6% (-0.03)
0-2 @ 3.21% (-0.02)
0-3 @ 1.65% (-0.07)
Other @ 5.3% (-0.15)
Total : 28.83%

Head to Head

National League North
Aug 9, 2025 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT