National League North

Dec 26, 2025 at 1pm UK

Oxford City Oxford City
1-3
Merthyr Town

Clark (88')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Livermore (5'), Twamley (62'), Cox (64')

Coverage of the National League North clash between Oxford City and Merthyr Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Oxford City

All competitions

Last Game: Oxford City 1-3 Merthyr Town
Friday, December 26 at 1pm in National League North

Next Game: P'boro Sports vs. Oxford City
Tuesday, December 30 at 7.45pm in National League North

Goals
for

Top scorers

Merthyr Town

All competitions

Last Game: Oxford City 1-3 Merthyr Town
Friday, December 26 at 1pm in National League North

Next Game: Merthyr Town vs. Hereford
Tuesday, December 30 at 7.45pm in National League North

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 50.27%. A win for Merthyr Town had a probability of 28.05% and a draw had a probability of 21.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.35%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win was 1-2 (6.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.

Result
Oxford City	Draw	Merthyr Town
50.27% ( 0.17)	21.67% ( -0.04)	28.05% ( -0.13)

Both teams to score 66.17% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.92% (

0.11)

33.07% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.19% (

0.13)

54.81% (

-0.13)

Oxford City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.4% (

0.09)

13.6% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.27% (

0.19)

40.72% (

-0.19)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.58% (

-0.02)

23.42% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.59% (

-0.03)

57.41% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Oxford City 50.27%

Merthyr Town 28.05%

Draw 21.67%

Oxford City	Draw	Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.2% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.35% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.12% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.94% Total : 50.27%	1-1 @ 9.22% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 2.15% ( 0) Other @ 0.44% Total : 21.67%	1-2 @ 6.69% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.24% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.23% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0) Other @ 2.94% Total : 28.05%