National League North
Dec 26, 2025 1.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Ewan Clark 88' goal
  • goal Aneurin Livermore 5'
  • goal Lewys Twamley 62'
  • goal Cawley Cox 64'

Oxford City vs Merthyr Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Oxford City

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Dec 20, 2025 3.00pm
Spennymoor 1 - 1 Oxford City
Goals scored
37
Top scorer
DJ Campton-Sturridge

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Dec 20, 2025 3.00pm
Merthyr Town 2 - 1 Curzon Ashton
Goals scored
74
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 50.27%. A win for Merthyr Town had a probability of 28.05% and a draw had a probability of 21.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.35%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win was 1-2 (6.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.

Result

Oxford City 50.27% (+0.18)
Draw 21.67% (-0.05)
Merthyr Town 28.05% (-0.13)

Both Teams to Score: 

66.17% (+0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5 66.92% (+0.12)
Under 2.5 33.07% (-0.12)
Over 3.5 45.19% (+0.13)
Under 3.5 54.81% (-0.13)
Over 4.5 26.46% (+0.11)
Under 4.5 73.54% (-0.11)

Oxford City Goals

Over 0.5 86.4% (+0.10)
Under 0.5 13.6% (-0.10)
Over 1.5 59.27% (+0.19)
Under 1.5 40.72% (-0.19)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 0.5 76.58% (-0.03)
Under 0.5 23.42% (+0.03)
Over 1.5 42.59% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 57.41% (+0.04)

Score analysis

Oxford City 50.27%
Draw 21.67%
Merthyr Town 28.05%
Oxford City
2-1 @ 9.2% (+0.01)
1-0 @ 6.35% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 6.34% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 6.12% (+0.03)
3-2 @ 4.44% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 4.22% (+0.02)
4-1 @ 3.05% (+0.03)
4-2 @ 2.22% (+0.02)
4-0 @ 2.1% (+0.02)
5-1 @ 1.22% (+0.02)
4-3 @ 1.07% (+0.01)
Other @ 3.94%
Total : 50.27%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.22% (-0.03)
2-2 @ 6.68% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 3.18% (-0.02)
3-3 @ 2.15% (+0.01)
Other @ 0.44%
Total : 21.67%
Merthyr Town
1-2 @ 6.69% (-0.03)
0-1 @ 4.62% (-0.04)
0-2 @ 3.36% (-0.03)
1-3 @ 3.24% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 3.23% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.62% (-0.02)
1-4 @ 1.18% (-0.01)
2-4 @ 1.17% (-0.01)
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 28.05%