Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 50.27%. A win for Merthyr Town had a probability of 28.05% and a draw had a probability of 21.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.35%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win was 1-2 (6.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.