Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 44.79%. A win for Curzon Ashton had a probability of 32.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.35%) and 2-0 (5.8%). The likeliest Curzon Ashton win was 1-2 (7.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.