National League North
Dec 20, 2025 at 3pm UK
 

Merthyr Town
2-1
Curzon AshtonCurzon Ashton

Rees (45+2' pen.), Lucas (80')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Holmes (77')
Coverage of the National League North clash between Merthyr Town and Curzon Ashton.

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
Last Game: Merthyr Town 2-1 Curzon Ashton
Saturday, December 20 at 3pm in National League North
Next Game: Oxford City vs. Merthyr Town
Friday, December 26 at 1pm in National League North

Curzon Ashton

All competitions
Last Game: Merthyr Town 2-1 Curzon Ashton
Saturday, December 20 at 3pm in National League North
Next Game: Curzon Ashton vs. Radcliffe
Friday, December 26 at 3pm in National League North

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 44.79%. A win for Curzon Ashton had a probability of 32.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.35%) and 2-0 (5.8%). The likeliest Curzon Ashton win was 1-2 (7.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.

Result
Merthyr TownDrawCurzon Ashton
44.79% (0.018000000000001 0.02)22.56% (0.0010000000000012 0)32.64% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
Both teams to score 65.77% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.2% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)34.8% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.24% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)56.76% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Merthyr Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.87% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)16.13% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.44% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)45.55% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Curzon Ashton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.41% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)21.59% (0.020999999999997 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.32% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)54.68% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Merthyr Town 44.79%
    Curzon Ashton 32.64%
    Draw 22.56%
Merthyr TownDrawCurzon Ashton
2-1 @ 8.89% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-0 @ 6.35% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.8% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-1 @ 5.4% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 4.14% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 3.53% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 2.47%
4-2 @ 1.89%
4-0 @ 1.61% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-3 @ 0.97% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.76%
Total : 44.79%
1-1 @ 9.74% (0.0040000000000013 0)
2-2 @ 6.81% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 3.48% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-3 @ 2.12% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
Other @ 0.41%
Total : 22.56%
1-2 @ 7.47% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-1 @ 5.34% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 4.09% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-3 @ 3.82% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 3.48% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 2.09% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 1.46% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.33% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.57%
Total : 32.64%

Head to Head
Aug 23, 2025 3pm
Curzon Ashton
0-3
Merthyr Town
rhs 2.0


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