National League North
Dec 30, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
 

Merthyr Town
2-2
HerefordHereford United

Rees (28'), Lewis Jarvis (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Hudson (59'), Howkins (90+4')
Coverage of the National League North clash between Merthyr Town and Hereford United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
Last Game: Merthyr Town 2-2 Hereford
Tuesday, December 30 at 7.45pm in National League North
Next Game: Merthyr Town vs. King's Lynn
Saturday, January 3 at 3pm in National League North

Hereford United

All competitions
Last Game: P'boro Sports 0-0 Hereford
Saturday, April 25 at 3pm in National League North
Next Game: Alfreton vs. Hereford
Saturday, January 3 at 3pm in National League North

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 51.34%. A win for Hereford United had a probability of 26.66% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.14%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Hereford United win was 1-2 (6.57%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.

Result
Merthyr TownDrawHereford United
51.34% (1.286 1.29)22% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)26.66% (-1.266 -1.27)
Both teams to score 63.69% (-1.062 -1.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.2% (-0.91500000000001 -0.92)35.8% (0.912 0.91)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.13% (-1.013 -1.01)57.87% (1.012 1.01)
Merthyr Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.78% (0.091999999999999 0.09)14.22% (-0.095000000000001 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.04% (0.183 0.18)41.96% (-0.187 -0.19)
Hereford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.25% (-1.321 -1.32)25.75% (1.317 1.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.31% (-1.826 -1.83)60.68% (1.823 1.82)
Score Analysis
    Merthyr Town 51.34%
    Hereford United 26.66%
    Draw 22%
Merthyr TownDrawHereford United
2-1 @ 9.45% (0.138 0.14)
1-0 @ 7.14% (0.344 0.34)
2-0 @ 6.97% (0.358 0.36)
3-1 @ 6.14% (0.11 0.11)
3-0 @ 4.53% (0.247 0.25)
3-2 @ 4.17% (-0.084 -0.08)
4-1 @ 3% (0.064 0.06)
4-0 @ 2.21% (0.128 0.13)
4-2 @ 2.03% (-0.034 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.17% (0.029 0.03)
4-3 @ 0.92% (-0.052 -0.05)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 51.34%
1-1 @ 9.69% (0.109 0.11)
2-2 @ 6.41% (-0.151 -0.15)
0-0 @ 3.66% (0.165 0.17)
3-3 @ 1.89% (-0.113 -0.11)
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 22%
1-2 @ 6.57% (-0.178 -0.18)
0-1 @ 4.97% (0.039 0.04)
0-2 @ 3.37% (-0.103 -0.1)
1-3 @ 2.97% (-0.199 -0.2)
2-3 @ 2.9% (-0.184 -0.18)
0-3 @ 1.52% (-0.108 -0.11)
1-4 @ 1.01% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-4 @ 0.98% (-0.103 -0.1)
Other @ 2.36%
Total : 26.66%