Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 46.19%. A win for Hereford United had a probability of 27.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Hereford United win was 0-1 (8.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.