Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for Merthyr Town had a probability of 29.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win was 0-1 (7.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.