National League North
Feb 21, 2026 3.00pm
3
2
HT : 0 1
FT The Impact Arena
  • Kieron Freeman 73' goal
  • J. Ayres 87' goal
  • George Cantrill 90'+5' goal
  • goal Keiran Evans 41'
  • goal Lewys Twamley 70'

Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Alfreton Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 3.00pm
Fylde 3 - 0 Alfreton
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
J. Ayres

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 3.00pm
Merthyr Town 7 - 1 Bedford
Goals scored
74
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for Merthyr Town had a probability of 29.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win was 0-1 (7.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.

Result

Alfreton Town 43.78%
Draw 26.66%
Merthyr Town 29.56%

Both Teams to Score: 

52.83%

Goals

Over 1.5 75.15% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 24.85% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 53.06%
Under 2.5 46.94%
Over 3.5 30.48%
Under 3.5 69.52%
Over 4.5 17.17%
Under 4.5 82.83%

First Half Winner

Alfreton Town 28.22% (-0.02)
Draw 43.02% (-0.04)
Merthyr Town 28.76% (+0.06)

Team To Score First

Alfreton Town 45.6%
No Goal 8.12%
Merthyr Town 46.28%

Corners

Over 8 62.2%
Equal 8 10.71%
Under 8 27.09%
Over 9 50.91%
Equal 9 11.29%
Under 9 37.8%
Over 10.5 39.97%
Under 10.5 60.03%

Alfreton Town Goals

Over 1.5 43.82%
Under 1.5 56.18%
Over 2.5 19.7% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 80.3% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 7.28%
Under 3.5 92.72%

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 0.5 64.85% (+0.04)
Under 0.5 35.15% (-0.04)
Over 1.5 31.91%
Under 1.5 68.09%
Over 2.5 12.88% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 87.12% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 3.75%
Under 3.5 96.25%

Score analysis

Alfreton Town 43.78%
Draw 26.66%
Merthyr Town 29.57%
Alfreton Town
1-0 @ 9.51%
2-1 @ 9.46% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 6.71% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 4.76%
3-0 @ 3.78%
3-2 @ 2.52% (+0.02)
Other @ 7.04%
Total : 43.78%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.49% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 8.12%
2-2 @ 5.45%
3-3 @ 1.36%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 26.66%
Merthyr Town
0-1 @ 7.23% (+0.02)
1-2 @ 7.17%
0-2 @ 3.89%
1-3 @ 3.09%
2-3 @ 2.5% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.18%
Other @ 3.51%
Total : 29.57%

Head to Head

National League North
Nov 22, 2025 3.00pm
6
2
HT : 0 0
FT