National League North Gameweek 31
Feb 7, 2026 3.00pm
Penydarren Park

Merthyr Town vs Chorley - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Jan 31, 2026 3.00pm
Darlington 0 - 0 Merthyr Town
Goals scored
57
Top scorer
Ricardo Rees

Chorley

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 3, 2026 7.45pm
Chorley 1 - 1 Leamington
Goals scored
41
Top scorer
Anjola Popoola

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 51.74%. A win for Chorley has a probability of 25.4% and a draw has a probability of 22.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.68%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Chorley win is 1-2 (6.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.06%).

Result

Merthyr Town 51.74%
Draw 22.86%
Chorley 25.4%

Both Teams to Score: 

60.77%

Goals

Over 1.5 82.8%
Under 1.5 17.2%
Over 2.5 62.26%
Under 2.5 37.74%
Over 3.5 39.35%
Under 3.5 60.65%
Over 4.5 24.34%
Under 4.5 75.66%

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 40.01% (-0.06)
Draw 36.54%
Chorley 23.44% (+0.05)

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 58.68% (-0.08)
No Goal 4.52%
Chorley 36.8% (+0.08)

Corners

Over 8 66.27%
Equal 8 10.18%
Under 8 23.55%
Over 9 55.19%
Equal 9 11.08%
Under 9 33.73%
Over 10.5 44.12%
Under 10.5 55.88%

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 54.94%
Under 1.5 45.06%
Over 2.5 29.62%
Under 2.5 70.38%
Over 3.5 12.91%
Under 3.5 87.09%

Chorley Goals

Over 0.5 62.75%
Under 0.5 37.25%
Over 1.5 32.15%
Under 1.5 67.85%
Over 2.5 12.41%
Under 2.5 87.59%
Over 3.5 3.78%
Under 3.5 96.22%

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 51.73%
Draw 22.87%
Chorley 25.4%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.33%
1-0 @ 7.68%
2-0 @ 7.21%
3-1 @ 6.21%
3-0 @ 5.19%
3-2 @ 3.46%
Other @ 12.65%
Total : 51.73%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.06%
2-2 @ 6.18%
0-0 @ 4.52%
3-3 @ 1.85%
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 22.87%
Chorley
1-2 @ 6.82%
0-1 @ 5%
0-2 @ 3.28%
1-3 @ 2.62%
2-3 @ 2.6%
0-3 @ 1.56%
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 25.4%

Head to Head

National League North
Oct 25, 2025 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT