National League North Gameweek 33
Feb 14, 2026 3.00pm
Penydarren Park

Merthyr Town vs Bedford - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 10, 2026 7.45pm
Kidderminster 0 - 0 Merthyr Town
Goals scored
57
Top scorer
Ricardo Rees

Bedford

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 7, 2026 3.00pm
Bedford 0 - 0 Chester
Goals scored
40
Top scorer
Tyrone Marsh

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 55.71%. A win for Bedford has a probability of 22.82% and a draw has a probability of 21.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (8.33%) and 1-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Bedford win is 1-2 (6.21%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.37%).

Result

Merthyr Town 55.71%
Draw 21.47%
Bedford 22.82%

Both Teams to Score: 

61.66%

Goals

Over 1.5 84.52% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 15.48% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 63.97%
Under 2.5 36.03%
Over 3.5 41.48%
Under 3.5 58.52%
Over 4.5 26.63%
Under 4.5 73.37%

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 42.96%
Draw 34.92%
Bedford 22.11%

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 60.14%
No Goal 3.99%
Bedford 35.87%

Corners

Over 8 74.32%
Equal 8 8.6%
Under 8 17.08%
Over 9 64.3%
Equal 9 10.02%
Under 9 25.68%
Over 10.5 53.56%
Under 10.5 46.44%

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 59.14% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 40.86% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 32.8% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 67.2% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 15.18%
Under 3.5 84.82%

Bedford Goals

Over 0.5 59.98%
Under 0.5 40.02%
Over 1.5 30.67%
Under 1.5 69.33%
Over 2.5 11.62%
Under 2.5 88.38%
Over 3.5 3.31%
Under 3.5 96.69%

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 55.72%
Draw 21.47%
Bedford 22.82%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.38%
2-0 @ 8.33%
1-0 @ 7.28%
3-1 @ 6.34%
3-0 @ 5.49% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.96%
Other @ 14.94%
Total : 55.72%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.37%
2-2 @ 6.04%
0-0 @ 3.99%
3-3 @ 1.83%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 21.47%
Bedford
1-2 @ 6.21%
0-1 @ 4.22%
0-2 @ 2.84%
2-3 @ 2.59%
1-3 @ 2.48%
0-3 @ 1.41%
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 22.82%

Head to Head

National League North
Nov 8, 2025 3.00pm
3
4
HT : 0 0
FT