Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curzon Ashton win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Bedford had a probability of 34.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curzon Ashton win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Bedford win was 1-2 (8.55%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.