Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chester FC win with a probability of 57.97%. A draw had a probability of 23.37% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 18.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chester FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%) , while for a Alfreton Town win it was 0-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.