Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Radcliffe win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Merthyr Town had a probability of 35.75% and a draw had a probability of 23.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Radcliffe win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.24%) and 2-0 (5.18%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win was 1-2 (8.22%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.