Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 40.93%. A win for Merthyr Town had a probability of 36.91% and a draw had a probability of 22.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.02%) and 3-1 (5.35%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win was 1-2 (8.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.