National League North
Apr 6, 2026 3.00pm
3
0
HT : 3 0
FT Edgar Street Athletic Ground
  • Lewis Hudson 13' goal
  • Mikey Lane 24' goal
  • Matt Preston 35' goal

Hereford United vs Merthyr Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Hereford United

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Apr 3, 2026 3.00pm
Kidderminster 2 - 1 Hereford
Goals scored
52
Top scorer
George Munday

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Apr 3, 2026 3.00pm
Merthyr Town 1 - 1 Oxford City
Goals scored
83
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 40.93%. A win for Merthyr Town had a probability of 36.91% and a draw had a probability of 22.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.02%) and 3-1 (5.35%). The likeliest Merthyr Town win was 1-2 (8.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.

Result

Hereford United 40.93% (+1.59)
Draw 22.15% (+0.02)
Merthyr Town 36.91% (-1.63)

Both Teams to Score: 

63.99% (+0.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.66% (+0.32)
Under 1.5 15.34% (-0.33)
Over 2.5 66.25% (+0.52)
Under 2.5 33.75% (-0.51)
Over 3.5 44.53% (+0.33)
Under 3.5 55.47% (-0.33)
Over 4.5 28.06% (+0.25)
Under 4.5 71.94% (-0.25)

First Half Winner

Hereford United 28.76% (+0.43)
Draw 37.31% (+0.24)
Merthyr Town 33.93% (-0.65)

Team To Score First

Hereford United 44.94% (+0.62)
No Goal 3.62% (-0.09)
Merthyr Town 51.44% (-0.54)

Corners

Over 8 67.64% (-2.68)
Equal 8 9.96% (+0.27)
Under 8 22.4% (+2.41)
Over 9 56.66% (-2.70)
Equal 9 10.98% (+0.02)
Under 9 32.36% (+2.67)
Over 10.5 45.56% (-2.47)
Under 10.5 54.44% (+2.47)

Hereford United Goals

Over 1.5 48.39% (+1.64)
Under 1.5 51.61% (-1.64)
Over 2.5 24.42% (+1.33)
Under 2.5 75.58% (-1.33)
Over 3.5 10.04% (+0.65)
Under 3.5 89.96% (-0.66)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 0.5 72.91% (-0.97)
Under 0.5 27.09% (+0.97)
Over 1.5 44.5% (-1.11)
Under 1.5 55.5% (+1.11)
Over 2.5 21.43% (-0.84)
Under 2.5 78.57% (+0.84)
Over 3.5 8.4% (-0.46)
Under 3.5 91.6% (+0.46)

Score analysis

Hereford United 40.93%
Draw 22.15%
Merthyr Town 36.91%
Hereford United
2-1 @ 8.3% (+0.22)
1-0 @ 6.02% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 5.35% (+0.24)
2-0 @ 4.91% (+0.16)
3-2 @ 3.82% (+0.11)
3-0 @ 2.96% (+0.25)
Other @ 9.57% (+0.64)
Total : 40.93%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.07% (-0.05)
2-2 @ 6.74% (+0.05)
0-0 @ 3.62% (-0.09)
3-3 @ 2.25% (+0.07)
Other @ 0.47% (+0.02)
Total : 22.15%
Merthyr Town
1-2 @ 8.07% (-0.16)
0-1 @ 5.69% (-0.26)
0-2 @ 4.44% (-0.28)
1-3 @ 4.37% (-0.23)
2-3 @ 4.02% (-0.11)
0-3 @ 2.39% (-0.12)
Other @ 7.93% (-0.49)
Total : 36.91%

Head to Head

National League North
Dec 30, 2025 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Ricardo Rees 28' goal
  • Cole Lewis Jarvis 77' goal
  • goal Lewis Hudson 59'
  • goal Kyle Howkins 90'+4'