Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Hereford United had a probability of 33.14% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Hereford United win was 0-1 (8.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.