Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southport win with a probability of 62.8%. A draw had a probability of 21.16% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 16.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southport win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (10.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%) , while for a Alfreton Town win it was 0-1 (4.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.