Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southport win with a probability of 48.07%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 26.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southport win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 1-2 (6.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.