National League North
Apr 3, 2026 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Penydarren Park
  • Cawley Cox 6' goal
  • goal Jack Bearne 48'

Merthyr Town vs Oxford City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Mar 21, 2026 3.00pm
South Shields 4 - 1 Merthyr Town
Goals scored
83
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Oxford City

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Mar 28, 2026 3.00pm
Oxford City 3 - 2 Kidderminster
Goals scored
52
Top scorer
Ewan Clark

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 54.08%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 24.04% and a draw had a probability of 21.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.61%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 1-2 (6.32%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.

Result

Merthyr Town 54.08% (-0.15)
Draw 21.93% (+0.06)
Oxford City 24.04% (+0.20)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.75% (+0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 83.68% (+0.13)
Under 1.5 16.32% (-0.13)
Over 2.5 64.01% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 35.99% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 41.21% (+0.18)
Under 3.5 58.79% (-0.18)
Over 4.5 26.43% (+0.15)
Under 4.5 73.57% (-0.16)

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 41.08%
Draw 37.04%
Oxford City 21.88%

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 60.47%
No Goal 4.14%
Oxford City 35.39%

Corners

Over 8 65.06% (+0.33)
Equal 8 10.56% (-0.04)
Under 8 24.38% (-0.30)
Over 9 53.66% (+0.34)
Equal 9 11.4% (-0.01)
Under 9 34.94% (-0.34)
Over 10.5 42.39% (+0.33)
Under 10.5 57.61% (-0.33)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 57.24% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 42.76% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 31.5% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 68.5% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 14.56% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 85.44% (-0.02)

Oxford City Goals

Over 0.5 61.68% (+0.23)
Under 0.5 38.32% (-0.23)
Over 1.5 31.63% (+0.24)
Under 1.5 68.37% (-0.24)
Over 2.5 12.34% (+0.16)
Under 2.5 87.66% (-0.16)
Over 3.5 4.1% (+0.09)
Under 3.5 95.9% (-0.08)

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 54.09%
Draw 21.93%
Oxford City 24.03%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 9.82% (-0.03)
1-0 @ 7.61% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 7.29% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 6.11% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 5.15% (-0.05)
3-2 @ 3.93% (+0.03)
Other @ 14.18%
Total : 54.09%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.5% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 6.16% (+0.03)
0-0 @ 4.14%
3-3 @ 1.75% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.38% (+0.02)
Total : 21.93%
Oxford City
1-2 @ 6.32% (+0.02)
0-1 @ 4.62% (+0.03)
0-2 @ 2.88% (+0.05)
1-3 @ 2.51% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.47% (+0.04)
0-3 @ 1.51% (-0.02)
Other @ 3.72% (+0.08)
Total : 24.03%

Head to Head

National League North
Dec 26, 2025 1.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Ewan Clark 88' goal
  • goal Aneurin Livermore 5'
  • goal Lewys Twamley 62'
  • goal Cawley Cox 64'