Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 42.85%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 31.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 1-0 (7.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.