Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Shields win with a probability of 42.6%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 32.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Shields win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.98%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Chorley win was 2-1 (7.65%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.