Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Telford United win with a probability of 47.74%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 27.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a AFC Telford United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Chorley win was 1-2 (6.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.