National League North Gameweek 26
Feb 17, 2026 7.45pm
New Bucks Head Ground

AFC Telford United vs Chorley - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Telford United

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 10, 2026 7.45pm
Telford 3 - 0 Hereford
Goals scored
50
Top scorer
Matt Stenson

Chorley

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 3.00pm
Chorley 0 - 0 Radcliffe
Goals scored
45
Top scorer
Anjola Popoola

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a AFC Telford United win with a probability of 47.17%. A win for Chorley has a probability of 27.23% and a draw has a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a AFC Telford United win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Chorley win is 1-2 (6.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.54%).

Result

AFC Telford United 47.17% (-0.26)
Draw 25.6% (-0.31)
Chorley 27.23% (+0.59)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.41% (+0.23)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.96% (+0.23)
Under 1.5 20.04% (-0.24)
Over 2.5 57.55% (+0.20)
Under 2.5 42.45% (-0.20)
Over 3.5 35.33% (+0.27)
Under 3.5 64.67% (-0.27)
Over 4.5 21.05% (+0.20)
Under 4.5 78.95% (-0.21)

First Half Winner

AFC Telford United 39.45% (-0.09)
Draw 36.45% (-0.31)
Chorley 24.11% (+0.40)

Team To Score First

AFC Telford United 57.93% (-0.03)
No Goal 5.75% (-0.18)
Chorley 36.32% (+0.21)

Corners

Over 8 57.42% (+0.06)
Equal 8 11.66% (+0.05)
Under 8 30.92% (-0.09)
Over 9 45.58% (+0.01)
Equal 9 11.85% (+0.05)
Under 9 42.58% (-0.06)
Over 10.5 34.55% (-0.04)
Under 10.5 65.45% (+0.04)

AFC Telford United Goals

Over 1.5 49.49% (-0.15)
Under 1.5 50.51% (+0.15)
Over 2.5 24.48% (-0.17)
Under 2.5 75.52% (+0.16)
Over 3.5 9.79% (-0.09)
Under 3.5 90.21% (+0.08)

Chorley Goals

Over 0.5 64.91% (+0.43)
Under 0.5 35.09% (-0.42)
Over 1.5 33.09% (+0.47)
Under 1.5 66.91% (-0.47)
Over 2.5 12.74% (+0.28)
Under 2.5 87.26% (-0.29)
Over 3.5 3.94% (+0.09)
Under 3.5 96.06% (-0.08)

Score analysis

AFC Telford United 47.17%
Draw 25.61%
Chorley 27.23%
AFC Telford United
2-1 @ 9.27% (-0.09)
1-0 @ 8.39% (-0.12)
2-0 @ 7.05% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 5.1% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 4.39% (-0.10)
3-2 @ 3.45% (+0.08)
Other @ 9.52% (-0.02)
Total : 47.17%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.54% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 6.3%
0-0 @ 5.75% (-0.18)
3-3 @ 1.75% (-0.06)
Other @ 0.27% (-0.06)
Total : 25.61%
Chorley
1-2 @ 6.79% (+0.08)
0-1 @ 5.91% (+0.08)
0-2 @ 3.81% (+0.05)
1-3 @ 2.89% (+0.09)
2-3 @ 2.39% (+0.13)
0-3 @ 1.77% (+0.06)
Other @ 3.67% (+0.15)
Total : 27.23%

Head to Head

National League North
Sep 6, 2025 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
National League North Gameweek 23
Jan 31, 2023 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT The Chorley Group Victory Park Stadium
  • Harvey Smith 45'+3' goal
National League North Gameweek 1
Aug 6, 2022 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT New Bucks Head Ground
  • Devarn Green 45' goal
  • redcard Jack Sampson 80'
National League North Gameweek 39
Apr 23, 2022 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Ollie Shenton 28' goal
National League North Gameweek 2
Aug 21, 2021 3.00pm
3
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Jason Oswell 36' redcard
  • Theo Streete 60' goal
  • Elliott Durrell 71' goal
  • Jack Byrne 90'+6' goal
National League North Gameweek 29
Mar 23, 2021 7.45pm