Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curzon Ashton win with a probability of 46.13%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curzon Ashton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 0-1 (7.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.