National League North Gameweek 39
Mar 14, 2026 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 0
FT Penydarren Park
  • Kiban Rai 7' goal
  • Cawley Cox 47' goal
  • goal Matty Dolan 53'
  • goal Junior Mondal 71'
  • goal Glen Taylor 90'+1'

Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
Merthyr Town 1 - 2 Chester
Goals scored
81
Top scorer
Lewys Twamley

Spennymoor Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
Southport 2 - 0 Spennymoor
Goals scored
51
Top scorer
Glen Taylor

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 56.07%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 22.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 1-2 (6.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.

Result

Merthyr Town 56.07% (-0.08)
Draw 21.08% (+0.06)
Spennymoor Town 22.85% (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.35% (-0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.46% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 15.54% (+0.05)
Over 2.5 65.12% (-0.11)
Under 2.5 34.88% (+0.11)
Over 3.5 42.38% (-0.19)
Under 3.5 57.62% (+0.19)
Over 4.5 27.14% (-0.19)
Under 4.5 72.86% (+0.19)

First Half Winner

Merthyr Town 41.2% (-0.18)
Draw 36.45% (+0.04)
Spennymoor Town 22.35% (+0.16)

Team To Score First

Merthyr Town 61.13% (-0.19)
No Goal 3.71% (+0.03)
Spennymoor Town 35.16% (+0.16)

Corners

Over 8 64.56% (-0.22)
Equal 8 10.22% (-0.09)
Under 8 25.22% (+0.30)
Over 9 53.6% (-0.11)
Equal 9 10.97% (-0.11)
Under 9 35.44% (+0.22)
Over 10.5 42.75% (+0.03)
Under 10.5 57.25% (-0.03)

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 1.5 59.18% (-0.15)
Under 1.5 40.82% (+0.15)
Over 2.5 33.12% (-0.17)
Under 2.5 66.88% (+0.16)
Over 3.5 15.35% (-0.18)
Under 3.5 84.65% (+0.19)

Spennymoor Town Goals

Over 0.5 61.07% (+0.15)
Under 0.5 38.93% (-0.15)
Over 1.5 30.74% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 69.26% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 11.79% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 88.21% (+0.01)
Over 3.5 3.76% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 96.24% (+0.01)

Score analysis

Merthyr Town 56.06%
Draw 21.08%
Spennymoor Town 22.85%
Merthyr Town
2-1 @ 10.04% (+0.03)
1-0 @ 7.49% (+0.05)
2-0 @ 7.41%
3-1 @ 6.69%
3-0 @ 5.26% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 4.12% (+0.01)
Other @ 15.05% (-0.18)
Total : 56.06%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.27% (+0.04)
2-2 @ 6.1%
0-0 @ 3.71% (+0.03)
3-3 @ 1.7%
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 21.08%
Spennymoor Town
1-2 @ 6.07% (+0.05)
0-1 @ 4.33% (+0.04)
0-2 @ 2.66% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.51% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.45% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.37%
Other @ 3.46% (-0.02)
Total : 22.85%

Head to Head

National League North
Oct 18, 2025 3.00pm
6
4
HT : 0 0
FT