Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Merthyr Town win with a probability of 56.07%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 22.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Merthyr Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 1-2 (6.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.