Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marine AFC win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marine AFC win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.09%). The likeliest Chorley win was 1-2 (8.28%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.