National League North Gameweek 29
Jan 27, 2026 7.45pm
The Impact Arena

Alfreton Town vs Chorley - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Alfreton Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 3.00pm
Alfreton 0 - 0 Bedford
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Bayley McCann

Chorley

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 3.00pm
Chorley 0 - 0 Darlington
Goals scored
40
Top scorer
Harry Ibbitson

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 40.02%. A win for Chorley has a probability of 30.79% and a draw has a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Alfreton Town win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Chorley win is 0-1 (9.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.06%).

Result

Alfreton Town 40.02% (+0.03)
Draw 29.2% (-0.02)
Chorley 30.79% (+0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.38% (+0.31)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.34% (+0.38)
Under 1.5 31.66% (-0.38)
Over 2.5 42.68% (+0.34)
Under 2.5 57.32% (-0.34)
Over 3.5 22.6% (+0.24)
Under 3.5 77.4% (-0.23)
Over 4.5 11.81% (+0.25)
Under 4.5 88.19% (-0.25)

First Half Winner

Alfreton Town 29.93% (+0.84)
Draw 46.68% (-0.08)
Chorley 23.39% (-0.77)

Team To Score First

Alfreton Town 48.71% (+0.82)
No Goal 10.15% (-0.24)
Chorley 41.14% (-0.58)

Corners

Over 8 55.86% (-0.97)
Equal 8 11.53% (-0.08)
Under 8 32.61% (+1.04)
Over 9 44.29% (-0.81)
Equal 9 11.57% (-0.17)
Under 9 44.14% (+0.97)
Over 10.5 33.61% (-0.61)
Under 10.5 66.39% (+0.60)

Alfreton Town Goals

Over 1.5 36.13% (+0.34)
Under 1.5 63.87% (-0.34)
Over 2.5 13.87% (+0.15)
Under 2.5 86.13% (-0.16)
Over 3.5 4.42% (+0.09)
Under 3.5 95.58% (-0.10)

Chorley Goals

Over 0.5 63.76% (+0.33)
Under 0.5 36.24% (-0.33)
Over 1.5 29.01% (+0.34)
Under 1.5 70.99% (-0.33)
Over 2.5 9.76% (+0.17)
Under 2.5 90.24% (-0.18)
Over 3.5 2.7% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 97.3% (-0.05)

Score analysis

Alfreton Town 40.02%
Draw 29.2%
Chorley 30.78%
Alfreton Town
1-0 @ 11.75%
2-1 @ 8.52% (+0.09)
2-0 @ 6.96% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 3.41%
3-0 @ 3.09% (-0.04)
3-2 @ 2% (-0.03)
Other @ 4.29% (+0.04)
Total : 40.02%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.06% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 10.15% (-0.24)
2-2 @ 4.91% (+0.05)
Other @ 0.13% (+0.06)
Total : 29.2%
Chorley
0-1 @ 9.76% (-0.09)
1-2 @ 6.7% (+0.05)
0-2 @ 5.64% (+0.09)
1-3 @ 2.47% (-0.06)
2-3 @ 1.87% (+0.09)
0-3 @ 1.77%
Other @ 2.57% (-0.03)
Total : 30.78%

Head to Head

National League North
Nov 4, 2025 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
National League North Gameweek 40
Mar 22, 2025 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT The Chorley Group Victory Park Stadium
  • Mike Calveley 2' goal
  • Mike Calveley 20' goal
National League North Gameweek 12
Oct 19, 2024 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT The Impact Arena
  • Adam Lund 45' yellowcard
  • George Cantrill 65' yellowcard
  • Liam Waldock 79' yellowcard
  • Liam Waldock 90' goal
  • yellowcard Mike Calveley 60'
National League North Gameweek 12
Jan 30, 2024 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 2 1
FT The Chorley Group Victory Park Stadium
  • Harvey Smith 34' goal
  • Jack Hazlehurst 44' goal
  • Carlton Ubaezuonu 77' goal
  • 81' goal
  • 81' goal
  • 81' goal
  • 81' goal
  • 81' goal
  • 81' goal
  • 81' goal
  • 81' goal
  • 81' goal
  • 81' goal
  • 81' goal
  • goal Adam Blakeman 18' (OG)
  • goal Harry Perritt 48'
National League North Gameweek 27
Jan 6, 2024 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT The Impact Arena
  • George Cantrill 35' goal
  • Liam Waldock 58' goal
National League North Gameweek 28
Jan 14, 2023 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT The Chorley Group Victory Park Stadium