Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 36.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.07%) and 2-0 (5.33%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (8.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.