Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 55.54%. A draw had a probability of 23.58% and a win for DC United had a probability of 20.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.99%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%) , while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.