Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.07%) and 0-2 (5.57%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 2-1 (8.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.