Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 36.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.94%) and 0-2 (5.3%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 2-1 (8.72%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.