Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 51.22%. A draw had a probability of 25.33% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 23.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%) , while for a New York City FC win it was 0-1 (6.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.