Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 58.33%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 20.86% and a draw had a probability of 20.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (5.68%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.