Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for DC United had a probability of 29.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest DC United win was 1-0 (7.68%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.