Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 60.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.14% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.81%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%) , while for a Toulouse win it was 1-2 (5.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.