Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Oct 16, 2026 7.45pm
Stade de La Pincenardière

Le Mans vs Toulouse - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Le Mans

All competitions
Last game
Oct 10, 2026 7.45pm
PSG 3 - 1 Le Mans
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Louis Mafouta

Toulouse

All competitions
Last game
Oct 10, 2026 7.45pm
Monaco 2 - 2 Toulouse
Goals scored
9
Top scorer
Casper Tengstedt

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Le Mans win with a probability of 37.62%. A win for Toulouse has a probability of 31.35% and a draw has a probability of 31.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Le Mans win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (7.72%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Toulouse win is 0-1 (10.97%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.63%).

Result

Le Mans 37.62% ▲ (+0.03)
Draw 31.03% ▲ (+0.02)
Toulouse 31.35% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

46.85%

Goals

Over 1.5 65.45% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 34.55% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 39.49% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 2.5 60.5% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 20.29% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 3.5 79.67%
Over 4.5 10.27% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 4.5 89.73% ▲ (+0.05)

First Half Winner

Le Mans 34.05% ▲ (+0.10)
Draw 43.01% ▼ (-0.04)
Toulouse 22.95% ▼ (-0.06)

Team To Score First

Le Mans 50.4% ▲ (+0.16)
No Goal 11.69% ▲ (+0.01)
Toulouse 37.91% ▼ (-0.18)

Corners

Over 8 55.79% ▲ (+0.22)
Equal 8 12.37% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 8 31.84% ▼ (-0.24)
Over 9 43.36% ▲ (+0.16)
Equal 9 12.43% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 9 44.21% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 10.5 32% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 10.5 68% ▼ (-0.10)

Le Mans Goals

Over 1.5 32.93% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 67.07% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 12.21%
Under 2.5 87.79%
Over 3.5 3.83% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 96.17% ▲ (+0.02)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5 63.24% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 0.5 36.76% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 1.5 27.88% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 1.5 72.12% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 2.5 9.08% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 90.92% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 2.5% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 97.5% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Le Mans 37.62%
Draw 31.04%
Toulouse 31.35%
Le Mans
1-0 @ 11.9% ▲ (+0.01)
2-1 @ 7.72% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 6.86%
3-1 @ 3.04% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 2.69% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 1.78% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 37.62%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.63% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 11.69% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.65%
Other @ 0.2% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 31.04%
Toulouse
0-1 @ 10.97% ▲ (+0.04)
1-2 @ 6.91% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 5.46% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 2.33% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.89%
2-3 @ 1.49%
Other @ 2.3% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 31.35%