Ligue 1 Gameweek 1
Aug 22, 2026 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stade de La Pincenardière
  • Dame Gueye 45'+2' goal
  • Alexandre Lauray 51' yellowcard
  • Louis Mafouta 55' goal
  • goal Romain Del Castillo 31'
  • yellowcard Ludovic Ajorque 43'
  • goal Kamory Doumbia 62'

Le Mans vs Brest - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Le Mans

All competitions
Goals scored
2
Top scorer
Dame Gueye

Brest

All competitions
Last game
May 17, 2026 8.00pm
Brest 1 - 1 Angers
Goals scored
2
Top scorer
Romain Del Castillo

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Le Mans win with a probability of 48.95%. A draw had a probability of 26.89% and a win for Brest had a probability of 24.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Le Mans win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%) , while for a Brest win it was 0-1 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result

Le Mans 48.95% ▼ (-0.11)
Draw 26.89% ▲ (+0.02)
Brest 24.16% ▲ (+0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

45.8% ▼ (-0.09)

Goals

Over 1.5 69.41% ▼ (-0.14)
Under 1.5 30.59% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 2.5 43.63% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 56.37% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 3.5 22.86% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 3.5 77.14% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 4.5 12.35% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 4.5 87.65% ▲ (+0.10)

First Half Winner

Le Mans 38.49% ▲ (+0.06)
Draw 42.32% ▲ (+0.07)
Brest 19.2% ▼ (-0.11)

Team To Score First

Le Mans 58.14% ▼ (-0.01)
No Goal 9.29% ▲ (+0.04)
Brest 32.57% ▼ (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 57.07% ▲ (+0.25)
Equal 8 11.42%
Under 8 31.52% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 9 45.52% ▲ (+0.23)
Equal 9 11.55% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 9 42.93% ▼ (-0.25)
Over 10.5 34.78% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 10.5 65.22% ▼ (-0.19)

Le Mans Goals

Over 1.5 42.81% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 1.5 57.19% ▲ (+0.17)
Over 2.5 18.23% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 2.5 81.77% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 3.5 6.74% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 3.5 93.26% ▲ (+0.07)

Brest Goals

Over 0.5 56.8% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 0.5 43.2% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 1.5 22.99% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 1.5 77.01% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 2.5 7.25% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 92.75% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 1.79%
Under 3.5 98.21%

Score analysis

Le Mans 48.95%
Draw 26.89%
Brest 24.14%
Le Mans
1-0 @ 12.98% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 9.73% ▼ (-0.05)
2-1 @ 9.02%
3-0 @ 4.64%
3-1 @ 4.28% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 1.76% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 6.54% ▼ (-0.06)
Total : 48.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.21% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 9.29% ▲ (+0.04)
2-2 @ 4.38% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 26.89%
Brest
0-1 @ 8.3% ▲ (+0.02)
1-2 @ 5.75% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 3.85% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 1.84%
2-3 @ 1.45%
0-3 @ 1.36% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 1.59%
Total : 24.14%