Ligue 1 Gameweek 4
Sep 12, 2026 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 2 0
FT Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir
  • Panos Katseris 17' yellowcard
  • Ibrahima Baldé 37' goal
  • Noah Mbamba 39' goal
  • goal Casper Tengstedt 48'
  • goal Thomas Jørgensen 68'

Lorient vs Toulouse - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Lorient

All competitions
Last game
Sep 5, 2026 4.15pm
Lens 0 - 1 Lorient
Goals scored
4
Top scorer
Jean-Victor Makengo

Toulouse

All competitions
Last game
Sep 3, 2026 7.45pm
Toulouse 0 - 1 Lille
Goals scored
4
Top scorer
Jacen Russell-Rowe

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.36%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (8.06%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.

Result

Lorient 41.71% ▼ (-0.04)
Draw 26.36%
Toulouse 31.93% ▲ (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.21% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.54% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 25.46% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 50.27% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 2.5 49.73% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 28.97% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 71.03% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 4.5 15.88% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 4.5 84.12% ▲ (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Lorient 31.82% ▼ (-0.06)
Draw 44.96% ▲ (+0.04)
Toulouse 23.22%

Team To Score First

Lorient 51.15% ▼ (-0.06)
No Goal 7.37% ▲ (+0.01)
Toulouse 41.48% ▲ (+0.04)

Corners

Over 8 53.32% ▼ (-0.01)
Equal 8 12.58%
Under 8 34.1% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 9 40.92% ▼ (-0.02)
Equal 9 12.4%
Under 9 46.68% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 10.5 29.8% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 10.5 70.2% ▲ (+0.02)

Lorient Goals

Over 1.5 40.95% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 1.5 59.05% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 2.5 17.13% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 2.5 82.87% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 5.86% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 94.14% ▲ (+0.02)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5 66.66% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 0.5 33.34% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 1.5 33.46% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 66.54% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 12.33% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 87.67% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 3.81% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 96.19% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Lorient 41.7%
Draw 26.37%
Toulouse 31.93%
Lorient
1-0 @ 10.03%
2-1 @ 8.68% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 6.94%
3-1 @ 4.29% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.18% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.76% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 5.82% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 41.7%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.17%
0-0 @ 7.37% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.75%
3-3 @ 1.04%
Other @ 0.04%
Total : 26.37%
Toulouse
0-1 @ 8.06% ▲ (+0.01)
1-2 @ 7.46%
0-2 @ 5.16% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 3.05% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.45%
0-3 @ 1.98%
Other @ 3.77% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 31.93%

Head to Head

Ligue 1
Mar 21, 2026 4.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stadium de Toulouse
  • Emersonn 64' yellowcard
  • Warren Kamanzi 64' yellowcard
  • Warren Kamanzi 65' yellowcard
  • Emersonn 81' goal
  • Mario Sauer 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Aiyegun Tosin 73'
  • yellowcard Sambou Soumano 73'
  • yellowcard Panos Katseris 79'
Ligue 1
Nov 9, 2025 2.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Ligue 1 Gameweek 31
Apr 28, 2024 2.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir
  • Julien Ponceau 19' goal
  • Nathaniel Adjei 31' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Moussa Diarra 38'
  • yellowcard Zakaria Aboukhlal 51'
  • goal Thijs Dallinga 59'
  • goal Ibrahim Cissoko 83'
  • yellowcard Vincent Sierro 87'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 14
Dec 3, 2023 2.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
  • Aron Donnum 1' yellowcard
  • Carles Martinez 2' yellowcard
  • Thijs Dallinga 72' goal
  • Vincent Sierro 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tiemoue Bakayoko 9'
  • yellowcard Montassar Talbi 33'
  • yellowcard Julien Ponceau 71'
  • yellowcard Benjamin Mendy 83'
  • goal Bamba Dieng 90'+1'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 32
Apr 23, 2023 2.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • goal Zakaria Aboukhlal 68'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 3
Aug 21, 2022 2.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Rafael Ratao 31' goal
  • Thijs Dallinga 43' yellowcard
  • Thijs Dallinga 64' goal
  • Branco van den Boomen 72' yellowcard
  • goal Armand Lauriente 2'
  • yellowcard Enzo Le Fee 23'
  • goal Ibrahima Kone 80'