Ligue 1 Gameweek 33
May 10, 2026 8.00pm
Stadium de Toulouse

Toulouse vs Lyon - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions
Last game
May 3, 2026 4.15pm
Strasbourg 1 - 2 Toulouse
Goals scored
45
Top scorer
Yann Gboho

Lyon

All competitions
Last game
May 3, 2026 7.45pm
Lyon 4 - 2 Rennes
Goals scored
52
Top scorer
Pavel Sulc

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Lyon win with a probability of 44.57%. A win for Toulouse has a probability of 28.14% and a draw has a probability of 27.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.17%) and 0-2 (7.83%). The likeliest Toulouse win is 1-0 (8.5%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.14%).

Result

Toulouse 28.14% (-0.04)
Draw 27.33% (+0.01)
Lyon 44.57% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.6% (+0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.46% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 28.54% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 46.95% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 53.05% (-0.03)
Over 3.5 25.86% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 74.14% (-0.02)
Over 4.5 13.84% (+0.03)
Under 4.5 86.16% (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Toulouse 24.82% (-0.02)
Draw 41.79% (+0.02)
Lyon 33.39%

Team To Score First

Toulouse 40.39% (-0.08)
No Goal 8.98% (+0.02)
Lyon 50.63% (+0.07)

Corners

Over 8 53.86% (+0.09)
Equal 8 12.43% (+0.01)
Under 8 33.71% (-0.11)
Over 9 41.56% (+0.08)
Equal 9 12.3% (+0.03)
Under 9 46.14% (-0.09)
Over 10.5 30.46% (+0.06)
Under 10.5 69.54% (-0.05)

Toulouse Goals

Over 1.5 28.38%
Under 1.5 71.62%
Over 2.5 9.82% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 90.18% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 2.64% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 97.36% (-0.02)

Lyon Goals

Over 0.5 73.92% (+0.05)
Under 0.5 26.08% (-0.05)
Over 1.5 41.57% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 58.43% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 17.7% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 82.3% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 5.87% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 94.13% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Toulouse 28.14%
Draw 27.33%
Lyon 44.57%
Toulouse
1-0 @ 8.5% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 6.52% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 4.53% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 2.59%
3-2 @ 1.89%
3-0 @ 1.63% (-0.02)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 28.14%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.14% (-0.02)
0-0 @ 8.98% (+0.02)
2-2 @ 4.98%
3-3 @ 1.07% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.16% (+0.02)
Total : 27.33%
Lyon
0-1 @ 11.1% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 9.17% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 7.83%
1-3 @ 4.47% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 3.76% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.53% (+0.01)
Other @ 5.71%
Total : 44.57%

Head to Head

Ligue 1
Oct 5, 2025 2.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Ligue 1 Gameweek 18
Jan 18, 2025 8.05pm
0
0
HT : 0 1
FT Parc Olympique Lyonnais
  • goal Zakaria Aboukhlal 12'
  • yellowcard Sael Kumbedi 56'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 6
Sep 29, 2024 2.00pm
1
2
HT : 2 1
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
  • Yann Gboho 14' goal
  • Yann Gboho 14' goal
  • Aron Donnum 58' yellowcard
  • Cristian Casseres Jr 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jordan Veretout 10'
  • goal Rasmus Nicolaisen 28' (OG)
  • yellowcard Duje Caleta-Car 48'
  • goal Malick Fofana 90'+5'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 26
Mar 15, 2024 8.00pm
2
3
HT : 0 1
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
  • Stijn Spierings 43' yellowcard
  • Aron Donnum 45'+2' yellowcard
  • Thijs Dallinga 53' goal
  • Vincent Sierro 59' goal
  • goal Alexandre Lacazette 33'
  • yellowcard Corentin Tolisso 37'
  • yellowcard Clinton Mata 45'+1'
  • goal Rayan Cherki 77'
  • goal Jake O'Brien 81'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 15
Dec 10, 2023 4.05pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Parc Olympique Lyonnais
  • Alexandre Lacazette 25' goal
  • Alexandre Lacazette 29' goal
  • Mahamadou Diawara 68' yellowcard
  • Alexandre Lacazette 80' goal
  • Diego Moreira 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Frank Magri 25'
  • yellowcard Vincent Sierro 41'
  • yellowcard Aron Donnum 63'
  • yellowcard Moussa Diarra 79'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 31
Apr 14, 2023 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Zakaria Aboukhlal 37' goal
  • goal Alexandre Lacazette 34'
  • goal Logan Costa 88' (OG)