Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 44.41%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 28.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.49%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.