Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 41.97%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 32.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (7.97%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.