Ligue 1
May 17, 2026 8.00pm
0
0
Aband. Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau

Nantes vs Toulouse - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Nantes

All competitions
Last game
May 8, 2026 7.45pm
Lens 1 - 0 Nantes
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Matthis Abline

Toulouse

All competitions
Last game
May 10, 2026 8.00pm
Toulouse 2 - 1 Lyon
Goals scored
47
Top scorer
Yann Gboho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 37.91%. A win for Nantes had a probability of 36.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.72%) and 0-2 (5.57%). The likeliest Nantes win was 2-1 (8.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.

Result

Nantes 36.26% (-0.17)
Draw 25.87% (-0.26)
Toulouse 37.91% (+0.47)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.16% (-0.16)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.62% (+0.44)
Under 1.5 21.38% (-0.43)
Over 2.5 56.06% (+0.53)
Under 2.5 43.94% (-0.53)
Over 3.5 33.35% (+0.36)
Under 3.5 66.65% (-0.36)
Over 4.5 18.93% (+0.26)
Under 4.5 81.07% (-0.27)

First Half Winner

Nantes 28.33% (-0.03)
Draw 45.31% (+0.20)
Toulouse 26.35% (-0.18)

Team To Score First

Nantes 48.05% (+1.62)
No Goal 5.88% (-0.11)
Toulouse 46.07% (-1.53)

Corners

Over 8 57.32% (-0.93)
Equal 8 11.3% (-0.50)
Under 8 31.38% (+1.42)
Over 9 45.84% (-0.31)
Equal 9 11.47% (-0.62)
Under 9 42.68% (+0.93)
Over 10.5 35.13% (+0.29)
Under 10.5 64.87% (-0.29)

Nantes Goals

Over 1.5 39.69% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 60.31% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 16.67% (+0.09)
Under 2.5 83.33% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 5.57% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 94.43% (+0.05)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5 73.17% (+0.49)
Under 0.5 26.83% (-0.50)
Over 1.5 41.42% (+0.47)
Under 1.5 58.58% (-0.47)
Over 2.5 17.75% (+0.49)
Under 2.5 82.25% (-0.49)
Over 3.5 6.17% (+0.23)
Under 3.5 93.83% (-0.24)

Score analysis

Nantes 36.26%
Draw 25.87%
Toulouse 37.91%
Nantes
2-1 @ 8.47% (+0.09)
1-0 @ 7.82% (-0.21)
2-0 @ 5.27% (-0.13)
3-1 @ 3.84% (+0.05)
3-2 @ 2.96% (+0.07)
3-0 @ 2.69% (+0.03)
Other @ 5.21% (-0.05)
Total : 36.26%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.72% (-0.03)
2-2 @ 6.3% (-0.13)
0-0 @ 5.88% (-0.11)
3-3 @ 1.61% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.36% (+0.02)
Total : 25.87%
Toulouse
1-2 @ 8.84% (-0.01)
0-1 @ 7.72% (-0.09)
0-2 @ 5.57% (+0.07)
1-3 @ 4.28% (+0.17)
2-3 @ 2.98% (+0.05)
0-3 @ 2.71% (+0.07)
Other @ 5.81% (+0.22)
Total : 37.91%

Head to Head

Ligue 1
Sep 27, 2025 6.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Ligue 1 Gameweek 31
Apr 27, 2025 4.15pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau
  • Douglas 26' yellowcard
  • Antoine Kombouare 70' yellowcard
  • Antoine Kombouare 70' yellowcard
  • Nicolas Cozza 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jaydee Canvot 9'
  • redcard Noah Edjouma 38'
  • yellowcard Aron Donnum 80'
  • yellowcard Charlie Cresswell 90'+2'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 1
Aug 18, 2024 4.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
  • Warren Kamanzi 24' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tino Kadewere 45'
  • yellowcard Jean-Charles Castelletto 71'
  • yellowcard Marcus Coco 71'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 21
Feb 11, 2024 2.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
  • Vincent Sierro 19' yellowcard
  • Yann Gboho 41' yellowcard
  • Thijs Dallinga 90'+6' goal
  • goal Mostafa Mohamed 2'
  • yellowcard Moussa Sissoko 45'+1'
  • goal Tino Kadewere 51'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 1
Aug 13, 2023 2.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau
  • Marcus Coco 2' yellowcard
  • Mostafa Mohamed 13' goal
  • Nicolas Pallois 18' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Logan Costa 52'
  • goal Zakaria Aboukhlal 62'
  • yellowcard Vincent Sierro 73'
  • goal Rasmus Nicolaisen 90'+1'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 35
May 14, 2023 3.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT