Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 83.4%. A draw had a probability of 10.7% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 5.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.84%) and 4-0 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.83%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-2 (1.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.