Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 79.48%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 8.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-3 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.93%) and 1-3 (8.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 2-1 (2.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.