Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 70.6%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.23%) and 0-3 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.73%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.