Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 79.92%. A draw had a probability of 12.8% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 7.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.93%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-2 (2.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.