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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 47.07%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 27.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Harrogate Town |
| 47.07% | 25.79% | 27.13% |
| Both teams to score 51.26% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.66% | 52.33% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.97% | 74.02% |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.77% | 22.22% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.35% | 55.65% |
| Harrogate Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.92% | 34.08% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.23% | 70.76% |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Harrogate Town |
| 1-0 @ 11.39% 2-1 @ 9.22% 2-0 @ 8.57% 3-1 @ 4.62% 3-0 @ 4.3% 3-2 @ 2.49% 4-1 @ 1.74% 4-0 @ 1.62% 4-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.2% Total : 47.07% | 1-1 @ 12.26% 0-0 @ 7.57% 2-2 @ 4.96% Other @ 0.99% Total : 25.79% | 0-1 @ 8.15% 1-2 @ 6.6% 0-2 @ 4.39% 1-3 @ 2.37% 2-3 @ 1.78% 0-3 @ 1.58% Other @ 2.27% Total : 27.13% |