Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 47.07%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 27.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
