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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 38.94%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 33.94% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (9.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 33.94% | 27.12% | 38.94% |
| Both teams to score 50.32% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.97% | 55.03% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.71% | 76.29% |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.43% | 30.57% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.2% | 66.8% |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.47% | 27.53% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.96% | 63.05% |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 9.98% 2-1 @ 7.62% 2-0 @ 5.91% 3-1 @ 3.01% 3-0 @ 2.34% 3-2 @ 1.94% Other @ 3.14% Total : 33.94% | 1-1 @ 12.86% 0-0 @ 8.42% 2-2 @ 4.92% Other @ 0.92% Total : 27.11% | 0-1 @ 10.85% 1-2 @ 8.3% 0-2 @ 7% 1-3 @ 3.57% 0-3 @ 3.01% 2-3 @ 2.11% 1-4 @ 1.15% 0-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.98% Total : 38.94% |