Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 41.37%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 31.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (9.41%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.