Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 39.23%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 33.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-0 (10.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.