Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 36.99%. A win for Reading had a probability of 35.84% and a draw had a probability of 27.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest Reading win was 0-1 (10%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.