Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 45.84%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 28.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (7.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.