Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 53.8%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 23.79% and a draw had a probability of 22.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.71%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-2 (6.14%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.