Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 34.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 1-2 (7.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.