Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 41.83%. A win for Reading had a probability of 32.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Reading win was 0-1 (7.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.